We have seen this comment over the last few days, while we are eliminating the jobs, the livelihoods and the futures of millions of people in hopes that it saves the lives of thousands of our loved ones. This is an absolutely brutal decision that needs to be made daily and I’m certainly glad that I’m not the person responsible for making this decision, especially considering that it’s a no-win scenario. I can’t even imagine the conversation between a Baby Boomer who is thanking a Generation X, or Millennial for sacrificing their future in “hopes” of keeping them virus free. While they (Gen X, Millennials) may not be heading into battle, outfitted in camouflage and provided government issued ammunition, they are assuming debt (Trillions of dollars) and deferred futures / lifestyles with no reparations on the backend for the sacrifices made now.
Downward Cycle
There are families that will never recover from this crisis that may (or may not) last six to eight months. They may have been getting close to retirement (0 to five years) and they have a 401k, as pensions became unimaginable in modern day society and then they saw the stock market crash and their funds to even consider retiring (perhaps relinquish a position for the next generation) evaporate, indicating that retirement may no longer be attainable. We have also seen folks entering the workforce for the first time, hoping to become less dependent on others and then to get laid-off, or furloughed (gambling on a promise of a job), or just let-go (minus severance). These are individuals typically without medical insurance, rainy-day funds or a network of professional contacts that can get them engaged on interim employment while this all gets figured-out. I even hate to think about the families / individuals that decided in late 2019 that while the economy, environment was ripe for venturing out on your own, or fulfilling a lifelong dream of owning your own business and becoming independent. Then getting a federal, state or local notification that you are considered “non-essential” and need to shut down operations. The anxiety, stress and negative impact on a person’s mental health is unmeasurable.
The Numbers Game
Last week’s unemployment claims hit 6.65 million this is historic as the previous highest was the week before at 3.3 million which literally destroyed the previous record of 695 thousand in 1982. But why did I call this a numbers game, well it stems from the narrative above…what are we willing to risk? Let’s say that of the 7 million unemployed individuals there are 3 percent that now need mental health intervention (ex. suicide, alcohol, drug, gambling, domestic abuse scenarios), that’s roughly 210,000 people. As of this posting, we are currently at 5,900 deaths (USA) via COVID-19 which is not fully filtered by those with underlying ailments. Are we starting to play a balancing game…While we have direct control over forced economic shutdowns, we have limited control over the spread of the virus. But, do I approach the podium with an opening remark that says I am willing to sacrifice 210 thousand for the benefit of 5.9 thousand. Yes, this will be apples to oranges for some folks – but it will still be a burden that is inherited for years to come. The significant sacrifice will only be relevant to the impacted, with residual impact to the overall population.
Leading and Lagging Indicators – There is a whole world out there that lives by leading indicators and then another that swears by lagging indicators. Most like to know what may be in store (leading), while others are happy just confirming the known (lagging). I’m sure there are firms that have started exercising their artificial intelligence (AI), predictive analysis and neural networks against these simulations. These models may have been run and preliminary results available via published articles located deep in academia. Unfortunately, the way mainstream media news and information is disseminated and distributed, we may never see these results. If it doesn’t fit a specific narrative of the publisher, it is often passed over or massaged to meet that narrative. Years from now we may hear that an entity correctly predicted the impact on society, but hindsight is always 20/20 and it will buried in an editorial. Bottomline, we will always be the victims of emotional (society approved) themes and irrational decisions (fight or flight) commentary, which is consistently more ardent than fact based messaging.
No Easy Decisions
We were asked during our childhood to play games where we made unconscionable decisions…Would you kill “x” to save hundreds, or thousands of people?” Sometimes these were so easy to answer, you were wondering why you were even asked. But now the inverse is being asked, are you willing to sacrifice (livelihoods, savings, mental stability) of millions to save the thousands…a lot more provocative and pretty tough to quickly answer. No matter how to answer, you are damned if you do, or damned if you don’t. In conclusion, all I ask is that people think with both their hearts and their heads!!
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